Dalelorenzo's GDI Blog
19May/210

Can we expect an auto rally from here?

In real estate, it is better to wait and watch. But in a cyclical up move, the real estate players do well, says sell professional Ajay Bagga. On the disconnect between the macros and the marketsWait and watch is all I would say. The good bulletin is that quantities are coming down in terms of the reported infections. So 4,20, 000, 4,30, 000 strange seem to have the meridian for the second wave, and the numbers are coming down. If you look at IIT Kanpur and other poses, we could be looking at below 50,000 per period kind of infection amounts maybe one more month from now. That was factored in Monday’s market. But we are still quite a bit away from the February highs for quite a few broths. On Monday, banks and NBFCs, which account for 37 -3 8% of the market, conducted the rallying today and I would say wait and watch. The correlation with their own economies surely is very weak for the markets. What is today driving the markets is the lower crowd which seems to be now an established direction so we should be okay in terms of the numbers going down. We will have to wait and watch. On Dr Reddy’s, Sputnik V revises and Cipla’s earningsDr Reddy’s overall US numerals were mildly below par but clearly world markets is factoring that in. In most of April we witnessed a very sharp runup in Dr Reddy’s, the move being Sputnik and the other driver being evaluate accretion from the DRDO Covid drug which Dr Reddy’s will be co-producing. Cipla has run up over the last one year not much in terms of go this higher from here. If you have to choose between the two, I would say Dr Reddy’s has more drivers right now. Q4 earnings and Fed comment on inflation spikeI will take the Chinese amounts firstly and then come down to India because that is the biggest manufacturing hub. Their WPI came in at about 5.4%. Their constructed commodities inflation came at 5.8% while the raw material hike was 15.8%. That has indicated that manufacturers were sucking quite a bit of the hike in raw materials and in the commodity composite because of not being able to pass on the cost hikes. Asian Depicts for example, came out with blockbuster digits and they were very clear that they were able to pass on the raw material hikes to the end consumers. But on the economy level, we have to recalculate the CPI in a different mode but it is not very analogous. Our manufacturing inflation would be in the range of 5.5 -6% while the WPI has come at 10.9 which we usually recalculate. Why did the market get spooked by the US inflation multitudes? The US inflation is just 2% while the costs of residences have gone up 17%. The figure that we use internally was coming at 8% for the US. In India, the raw material costs repercussion about 50% of Nifty earnings and as we go down, it may impact even more. In FMCG, the raw material cost is about 57%. In consumer durables like autom raw material are a fairly significant part and they have been increasing. We have understood a stock super cycle setting in which will stay for fairly some time. Maruti has taken three expenditure hikes previously but now demand itself is constrained and there will be dealer damages and stock-take losings. Overall quarter four has been okay but the guidance is not that great and quarter one will suffer. But the market is looking at quarter three, one-fourth four so we are not seeing that kind of correction, we are seeing resilience in the market because the market is factoring in that once vaccinations get some traction in August, September and the commemoration season kickings in what kind of demand will there be and that is the kind of valuations are we getting. Valuations are not cheap, especially one year forward we are about 12% higher than historical average lists. But that is a function of last year’s underperformance and this year’s expected outperformance. On which areas to recover fast and which would take a little longer to recover Well, there is this report by the Hoteliers Association where they said they have lost 75% revenues over FY2021 vis-a-vis 2020, nearly Rs 1.32 trillion revenues having gone off and that will be impacted. In case of retail, we saw a few cases retailers at the top end doing well but the large portion of the unlisted retailers are going to stay down and countless might go out of business. All that will have second guild impressions. Last year, parties dipped into their savings and finagled somehow. This time the aching is much stronger in the unlisted segments. In the rostered groceries, we are okay because it is always the survival of the fittest and there will be those two or three presidents in each segment but it will move from defensives more into the cyclicals. I would not be surprised if we find an vehicle rallying from here. It has underperformed a lot. There will be very horrible digits for May and probably most of June as well. We do not look very strong reopening happening at least till mid June if not end June. So we will have pretty bad figures from automobiles but that will compress demand and then it will come back like last year. The difference is that inflation has come in. The makes who can take the hikes, have raised rates and that is why the market is rewarding them. I expect auto firms will be forced to take hikes given the kind of increases in raw material rates. Mostly, it is the unlisted musicians who will find it difficult. The listed participates have been able to take out money. Aviation for example is a write off, they are able to shape Rs 20,000 crores of losses on an manufacture wide basis in FY2 1. But they have been raising funds and in the end, it is an infrastructure and parties will look at it one year hence. I is not expect much of a parcel, it should not come last year for aviation. I am not expecting this year either. It will be survival of the fittest and the two, three private participates will survive and move on. On real estate stocksIn real estate, stick with quality musicians "whos been" good money on the books. They will continue to do well. We have heard strong deleveraging by some of the major players that has helped with the piggy money coming in and the absorption of warehousing resources, absorption of other assets that has been a good vogue. But overall, the commercial-grade department cavity will stay oversupplied for quite some time. Existing cavities will be questioned by conducts in terms of whether one certainly needs that numerous parties in and how soon they will be able to open up powers. I is not receive our vaccination curriculum enabling that before December. So January is what you are looking at. So will managements truly be spending on office seats? I do not think so. Rather they would look at renegotiating all their existing contracts. Retail is lose amd so the plaza businesses will take time though last year we checked that the retrieval was good and they have again suffered a lot with rentals not be payable or being on receipt sharing basis. Residential real estate had started picking up but we are still somewhere like 2013 -2 014 crowds, we have not really seen a full gross level retrieval. Real demand, which is the secular demand as in the US where people are looking at houses with one additional office, the suburbanisation or de-urbanisation moves are not possible in India right now. So, we will have to wait and watch to see that. But in a cyclical up move, the real estate actors will do well. So among the six-seven rostered entities, look at strong cash flow cases and go by the cash flows and you should be able to make good money there. But overall, part space, hotels as well as retail will take time to recover.

Read more: economictimes.indiatimes.com

1May/210

6 Elements Of Digital Brand Dominance

6 Elements Of Digital Brand Dominance

Video streaming is just one example of a digital economy where rivalry is intensifying. Many so-called legacy companionships are caught up in a battle with digital challengers, and so far, the born-digital corporations have been eating their lunch. Walmart( and every other physical sales outlet, from Macy’s to Best Buy) is in a constant struggle with Amazon, and banks and credit card companies are squaring off against PayPal and Apple Pay.

Meanwhile the digital monsters are battling one another for market share and dominance: Amazon’s AWS versus Microsoft’s Azure vapour services. Customer goods business, retailers, and manufacturers have hundreds of e-commerce start-ups nibbling at the edges of their market share with niche produces sold immediately to buyers online. Think of P& G’s Gillette razors sold in stores versus the online subscription-based Dollar Shave Club that sells direct to consumers.

The common yarn in these erupting debates is digitization. It has upended the very nature of competition today, and constituted twentieth-century ways of "ve been thinking about" competitive advantage obsolete.

The old-fashioned proverb “stick to your knitting, ” for example, a conversational version of “build on your core skill, ” tends to narrow a company’s imagination. Yet a forceful resource is crucial for commanders today. Netflix, Amazon, Facebook, and Google would not be what they are if their CEOs and executive teams has not been able to imagined a future that did not yet exist.

A clear goal of the competitive landscape has indicated that some of the early generalizations about “first mover advantage” and “winner takes all” are not holding up, especially as digital giants challenge each other.

First movers may be able to scale up fast, but others are certain to enter whatever large market cavities they start. For that reason, wins really don’t take it all, at least not forever. And if new adversaries don’t enter the fray quickly enough, antitrust government regulators may step in.

As early and dominant as Amazon has been in e-commerce, it is hardly alone. Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com are ferocious global competitors, and traditional retailer Walmart is barreling into the online space in a bigger way since its possession of Jet.com and its majority stake in Flipkart, India’s largest e-commerce player. It has been gaining friction by connecting its online sales with physical storages. In Brazil, B2W has regarded Amazon, a relative beginner, at bay.

The outcome of these competitive battles is uncertain. But some fundamental differences in how digital business participate have become clear. When one dissects the Netflixes, Amazons, Googles, and Alibabas of the world, we see that they have certain elements in common 😛 TAGEND

They imagine a 100 x busines gap that doesn’t more exist. They imagine an end-to-end experience in a person’s life--as the individual roams, munches, shops for good, or aims medical care or leisure -- that could be greatly improved, and if "its been", that a prodigious number of parties would want. They think about how technology might help to offset the seemingly inconceivable happen. They focus on the end user even if middlemen lie between them and the consumer. They know that if their provide is right for the end user, they can scale up very quickly, because oath spreads roughly promptly. Netflix believed that a huge number of parties would prefer to discover and experience videos at their gadget in their homes instead of going to a movie theater and putting up with overpriced snacks and shaking neighbours, or watching Tv at prescribed times set by the entertainment companies or systems. In persons under the age of $ 50 cellphones and ultra-low-cost Internet contacts, as in India, the potential market explodes. They have a digital platform at their core. A digital stage is an expertly sewed together mix of algorithms that store and analyze data for a variety of purposes. It allowed by fast experimentation and fast adjustment of tolls, and makes it possible to reach a huge population globally at negligible incremental payment. Netflix can easily stream its repertoire across geographic frontiers. Algorithms in the categories of artificial intelligence and machine learning can chasten themselves as they learn more about customers’ behavior and preferences, improving personalization and thereby increasing customer loyalty. They have an ecosystem that accelerates their growth. Ecosystem marriages take many forms, such as third-party sellers on Amazon’s website, Uber’s independent motorists, or Apple’s app makes. They permit the company to expand capacity promptly, often with no capital investment on its part. They admit cross-selling to extend innovations to a broader audience. They can also enable a new moneymaking model or supply a capability that is missing. Most ecosystems share data, contributing to the ability to scale up fast. Netflix would not exist without the contents it licensed from its ecosystem, such as the TV line Friends from WarnerMedia and The Office from NBCUniversal. Companies don’t compete against each other--their ecosystems do . Their moneymaking is bind to money and exponential swelling. Digital enterprises is a well-known fact that after a period of intense cash consumption, if the give is successful, returns will turn sharply upward as the incremental cost of the next component sold or customer contributed removes. They focus more on cash than on accounting measurings. Funders who distinguish the existing legislation of increasing returns are willing to ease the liquidity issues in the early going to reap exponential wages later. Decision-making is designed for innovation and raced. The downside of emergence and a principal reason traditional corporations experience diminishing returns is the increased complexity and bureaucracy that come with growth. But increased bureaucracy is no longer a given for companies that have a digital platform at their center. Teams close to the action can make decisions and take action without strata of oversight because they can easily access real-time information. They can move very fast. Accountability is built in because the digital platform makes a team’s progress perceptible to anyone in the company who needs to know. Overhead is kept to a minimum even as the company expands rapidly; Amazon’s general and administrative expenses are just 1.5 percent of revenues. Recruiting people who are self-motivated and can were living in a team-based environment makes the company innovative and agile. Their supervisors drive learning, reinvention, and execution. Digital captains have a different aim of knowledge and competencies than traditional overseers. They have a working knowledge of technology, an expansive imagery, and an ability to link their big-picture pondering with ground-level execution. Their use of data takes execution to a whole new level. And their constant communication with their teams, along with their decisiveness in switch aids, acquires the organization agile. The fluidity of their conjecture drives endless alteration and swelling. They form the modification that leaders of many other fellowships struggle to contend with.

So today’s digital whales and upstarts focus intensely on the experience of an individual consumer and open big brand-new busines infinites. They scale up fast, aggregate data, and draw relevant partners into their ecosystem. Their business representations focus on cash gross margin, money generation, and exponential proliferation. They get hefty sums of currency to fund their growth from VCs and investors who understand the brand-new motifs of money-making. And their highly committed commanders and employees work with purpose and focus relentlessly on what’s next, driving rush, ongoing innovation, and punishment execution.

Contributed to Branding Strategy Insider by: Ram Charan and Geri Willigan, excerpted from their book RETHINKING COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE with permission from Currency, an imprint of Random House, a separation of Penguin Random House.

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31Mar/210

Is the stock market closed on Monday?

NEW DELHI: The domestic equity market, along with currency and alliance sells, will be shut on Monday on account of Holi. At the commodities exchange, trading will be shut in the first half, exclusively to resume for the night time from 5 pm to 11.30 pm.The fund and money markets will now resume normal craft on Tuesday. On Friday, Wall Street assets surged in the second half an hour of commerce, lifting the three key indices by over one per cent. The S& P500 Index and Dow Jones eked out record closing highs.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Indicator clambered 453 degrees, or 1.39 per cent of the children, to 33,072. The S& P500 index gained 65.02 details, or 1.66 per cent, to 3,974 while Nasdaq Composite contributed 161 degrees, or 1.24 per cent of the children, to 13,138. The strong close for US stocks would influence Asian and European business on Monday. But since the Indian market will be shut for the day, it would react to the global progress simply on Tuesday.Tuesday's session will too consider the listing of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala-backed Nazara Technologies broth. The question, which was sold in the Rs 1,100 -1, 101 toll clique, viewed great response with 176 occasions subscription.To be sure, Monday isn't the only market holiday this truncated week. The week will have another holiday on Friday on account of Good Friday. "Next week would be a truncated one for Indian marketsdue to a couple of bank holidays, hence the buyers would watch the world-wide clues closely and have standings accordingly. Given the likelihood of high volatility continuing in the market for some time, investors would do well by stay appease and gradually accruing good quality companionships on descends in the market, " said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Business.

Read more: economictimes.indiatimes.com

31Mar/210

IRFC raises funds at lower rate than G-sec

State-owned Indian Railways Finance Corporation( IRFC) Friday conjured 20 -year money at about 10 basis sites lower than what same maturity sovereign bonds render on an annualised basis.In the recent time, this is the first instance when a top-rated corporate invoked long term money in domestic market at pace lower than sovereign papers.This fundraising points to a possible corporate attachment marketplace rally, lowering funding costs for borrowers.When bond furnishes come premiums rise.IRFC promoted Rs 1,375 crore with 20.1 year maturity via regional bails that offered 6.80 percentage. A government newspaper maturing in 2041 relented 6.80 percent semi-annually in the secondary market, which is annualised at about 6.90 percentage, establish data from the Clearing Corporation of India.EPFO, the largest debt investor in the country, ought to have bought a lion’s share of the primary cope, market participants said. EPFO could not be contacted immediately for notes. The retirement person earlier decided to deliver 8.50 percent return on provident fund monies. “It is a demand supply equation at romp, ” said Ajay Manglunia, managing director- obligation uppercase busines, JM Financial. “Long term institutional investors have money to invest, but primary issuances are not rising. This has left those investors with little selection amid a consortium of surplus liquidity.”The existing IRFC ligaments with same maturity are providing in the range of 7-7. 05 percentage. Ligament dealers expect a rally in the corporate alliance grocery after Friday’s primary sell deal.“Existing investors of IRFC will try to sell at lower crops searching trading additions, ” said a merchant with a larger bank.

Read more: economictimes.indiatimes.com

30Mar/210

Do you know why you invest the way you do? Check out my WHYs

In his best-selling book Start with Why, Simon Sinek writes about how people won’t truly buy a make, assistance, motion, or meaning until they understand the WHY behind it. This got me thinking about investing, and if I rightfully understood and am in tune with the WHY behind it.Do all of us indeed think deeply about the purpose behind the financing decisions that we make at any time? I decided to test this out and tried to put down the WHYs behind my financing decisions and my description of asset classes.While writing this, some of these WHYs made me by surprise and some constituted me actually guess before fully defining them. I hope it concludes you think, re-assess or become more aware of different aspects of investing and personal finance.Why do I go for Financial Planning? To achieve destinations like retirement, children’s education, buying a car, a vacation and assemble other business goals with least quantity of stress.Why equity? It’s a simple thought; proprietors earn more than employees.Why diversification? Not all owners will succeed.Why mutual funds? Most investors is not have the time, learning, exertion, or liking towards various asset castes and for investing.Why active stores? Because mutual fund administrators with its own experience, insight and strong teams have the potential to beat the market.Why passive funds? Because despite accusing costs in actively organized mutual funds, there is no guarantee that mutual fund directors will be able to beat the market.Why largecap assets and stores? They are relatively stable companies, suffered handling, can better manage economic downturns, have better access to capital and human resources development.( Relative to midcaps& smallcaps) Why Midcaps& Smallcaps? They offer better upside possibles, and a few cases of them is likely to be future largecaps.Why flexi-cap monies? This category has all three largecaps, midcaps, and smallcaps in one portfolio.Why international assets? Because, Indian stock market is less than 3 per cent of the entire world stock market.Why patience? Because from the crest of 1992 to 2003 the equity busines devoted no return for 11 years.Why long term? Maths. Because in the magic formula of compounding, go is exponential.Why fixed income? In 2008, when the equity market corrected more than 50 per cent of the children, the fixed income resources played as shock absorber.Why a core fixed income portfolio of' AAA’ certificates? Because the credit risk is low and the portfolio is well diversified with high quality borrowers.Why money market funds? To organize short-term needs.Why gold? When parties lose faith in fiat currency, the yellowed metal does well.Why real estate properties? It dedicates inflation-beating returns on a long-term basis along with added benefit of safety and security.Why emergency fund? Because the world is uncertain.Why life insurance? Because death is certain, but the timing is uncertain.Why health insurance now? No insurance company will readily give you insurance when you are fall ill.Why SIP? Because we are lazy and don’t have the self-discipline to invest every month.Why retirement saving? Because life is long and children are not our retirement fund.Why resource rationing? Because it helps deal with all economic situations and can ensure peace of mind.Why spend? Because, it causes joy and satisfaction.Why save? For incessant delight and satisfaction in the future.Why go for a business consultant? Very few people have the emotional knowledge to succeed finances on their own.Why no cryptocurrency? Because it is highly volatile, and doesn’t have the backing of the government guarantee, doesn’t have a track record or biography like amber, there is an operational risk of regarding it, and there is a risk of permanent uppercase erosion.Albert Einstein famously said, “If you can’t explain it to a six-year-old, you don’t understand it yourself”. And this can only happen if one began with a WHY? I hope this exercise of construe my WHYs has given you some perspective about your own WHYs. The WHY can also help weed out the suggestions and speculations that may not suit one’s risk appetite, values and goals and helps in having clarity and build conviction on a business decision.Financial stress is the biggest stress in most people’s lives. So next time you save, invest, or scheme a foreign tour, start it with a WHY ?( Amit Grover is AVP, training at DSP Mutual Fund. Views are his own)

Read more: economictimes.indiatimes.com

28Mar/210

Huawei’s Play Store competitor is doing better than you think

Cut off from Google, Huawei has had to go it alone.

What you need to know

Huawei has been cut off from Google for the past two years. The companionship developed its App Gallery as a permutation for the Google Play Store. Huawei this month announced strong continued proliferation of the App Gallery.

Despite the lack of Google support for its phones, Huawei is still here and obligating some of the best Android phones we've seen, when it comes to hardware at least. The company had been forced to build out its own App Gallery, a Play Store replacement, to even compete in the smartphone market. There are currently few ratifies that it's doing much to stop the bleeding, and rumors are swirling about Huawei jettisoning its flagship texts. Still, the company today shared news of the uptake of its AppGallery over the last year, and it's a growing business.

Huawei says that AppGallery now boasts 530 million monthly active consumers all over the world, 2.3 million registered makes, and has encountered a 188% increase in apps that work with HMS core. The company further quoth the inclusion of brand-new apps like Bolt and HERE WeGo as proof of continued expansion.

Huawei's Zhang Zhe, Director of Global Partnerships and Eco-Development Business Development, said the numbers were proof of AppGallery's progress as a world app mart, further adding that "In 2019, there were 25 countries around over a million AppGallery customers. That quantity has now grown to 42 and we continue to see strong rise across global markets."

It's not clear how to square these increased numbers with reports of Huawei bleeding the shares. In February 2020, Huawei claimed that AppGallery had 400 million active consumers, so it has grown by a exhibition quantity. Perhaps Huawei's light in foreign sells has ignited a surge in its dwelling sell, or the lack of options has forced all Huawei buyers to use the AppGallery whether they'd want to, or not. Either way, AppGallery's certainly not being written off anytime soon.

Read more: androidcentral.com

27Mar/210

Timt to bet on FMCG mid & smallcaps: Anshul Saigal

If one can find the freedom appoints in that space, with a one-two year occasion range, there is definitely money to be made in FMCG space, says Anshul Saigal, Portfolio Manager& Head-PMS, Kotak Mahindra AMC.On privates versus PSU banksThe trend vis-a-vis the large cap private banks and the PSU banks has been laid out over many years and conditions have not changed for this trend to change. It looks like the trend of some market share gains by private sector companies banks is going to continue in the future -- foreseeable as well as distant. The veer came strengthened by the fact that some of the banks were able to access the capital sells and conjure uppercase and strengthen their balance sheets which allows them to gain market share even faster going forward. Clearly those banks were more on the private area than the PSU side. Also one cannot overlook the fact that the consumers want to go to more credible actors for their bank requirements, in this case the private banks. All the conditions seem to suggest that the trend of market share amplifications is going to continue and there are 4-5 sizable private sector companies banks and there is a lot of market share to be taken. If the banking pie is worth Rs 100, then Rs 70 goes to PSUs, about Rs 10 -1 2 to NBFCs and the rest goes to private sector banks. Even though the private sector banks have outperformed in recent times, but clearly their share is very small in the context of the overall bank tart in its own country. So nothing would seem to indicate that private sector banks will see a hasten protrusion. On FMCG theme and midcap playersWe have seen that over the last 2 to three years, the FMCG space and the consumption cavity in general has been less correlated to financial act. We have visualized outperformance in this space compared to the rest of the markets. The outperformance has now become so austere that many of these FMCG fellowships were transactions at unsustainable valuation differentials and that required either FMCG valuations would need to correct or the rest of the market would need to see an expansion in valuations to catch up. In the past six odd months, FMCG companionships has already been underperformed the broader markets. The valuation spread is tightening and the rest of the market is outperforming the FMCG space though there is always scope to make money if you are a stock picker. In the mid and smallcap space, even in the FMCG segment there are opportunities to make money. There are tailwinds and to a certain extent animal forces have come out as beings are going out and spending and the sentimentality is improving. All these things are leading to volume growth in the mid and smallcap seat. If one can find the freedom specifies in that space, with a one-two year age scope, there is definitely money to be made in FMCG space. On whether BPCL and BEML are worthy of long-term investment or transactions pots on disinvestment newsAnshul Saigal: Both these companies are corporations with different ventures embedded in one company. For instance, BEML has a metro business, a excuse business and certain other industries. BPCL has an oil marketing business, a refining the enterprises and it has oil and gas wells for extraction. These are very different jobs, all embedded into a company. Someone coming to buy these companies will have to keep in mind that they are buying a conglomerate rather than a standalone business with a single cable of business. These corporations would have been of greater value had they been split and sold differently because people would have had the opportunity to get into the different indications of enterprises and have that risk profile added to their portfolios. But these are still very valuable and enormous assets. After disinvestment, numerous PSU companionships become much more efficient and much more client oriented. Their industries have grown manifold over the years, BSNL being a case in point. There may be value for strategic investors in these companies and the nature of these professions may be very different formerly this divestment plays out. So tactical investors may find value in both the stocks in the short term as also in the long term.On how to play the real estate and residence expect resurgence -- via plaster and real estate majors or via ancillaries In the US and Canada, where there is a recovery in real estate properties, while real estate rates had moved up marginally, the log costs have double-faced because unlike in India where we use concrete to build constructs, in the US and Canada they use wood and log and those prices have virtually double-dealing. So clearly in the US, construct information are a great behavior to play the real estate recovery. Similarly, in India, residence improvement and building substances are a very interesting method to play the real estate recovery. We are coming off virtually 6-7 years of consolidation in real estate and conditions are such that fringe players or weaker musicians are out of the market and the stronger actors are becoming stronger. The busines is consolidating in their spare. In 2017, the listed players had about 6-7% of market share in the Indian real estate space. That market share in three to four years, has gone up to 22%. This tells us that these companies are becoming stronger and too that organised actors "whos doing" gratifying to organised real estate firms are going to see market share incomes and this trend will strengthen going forward. Home improvement frisks -- be it tiles, sanitaryware, faucets, plywood etc or improving fabrics; plaster, steel -- all stand to benefit from a real estate recovery. And so I would say that that could be a nice way to play a recovery if one believes there is going to be a recovery then those would be a neat space to play the real estate improvement. On crude prices and power& oil marketing companiesAll commodity expenditures, including exertion rates are appreciating an uptick and the outlook for these expenditures is that they can remain strong and picture an upward path move forward. However, the free movement of persons in stock tolls as too exertion prices is only a fraction of the flower that we learnt in 2007 -0 8 and 12 -1 3 years have transferred after that peak. We are still a fraction of those tolls in terms of where commodity expenditures are today. If merchandise tolls continue this trend upwards, then we could continue to see an expansion in gross refining perimeters. We have realise deepened interest in energy and petroleum extraction companionships. Another interesting way to play this trend would be to bet on sugar now as with ethanol mixing, carbohydrate has become a play on energy. It becomes an interesting play as vigor prices become stronger going forward.

Read more: economictimes.indiatimes.com

27Mar/210

Covid year produces most multibagger stocks on D-Street since post-GFC rally

MUMBAI: In the midst of the worst health crisis in human history over the past century, the Indian stock market made the highest number of multibagger broths since 2009 -1 0 in the year till March 2021, data compiled by ETMarkets.com showed.The astounding performance was aided by the trillions of dollars of money reproducing by global central banks and stimulus containers from governments to repair the global economy from the Covid-1 9 shock.“Extremely gigantic response from central banks and governments compared with the 2008 crisis has underpinned this bull market, ” said a premier asset polouse at a city-based life insurance company, who barred naming.In 2020 -2 1 still further, as numerous as 1,090 -- or 45 per cent of the children of the rostered capitals on the BSE -- have given more than 100 per cent returns, data available on the Ace Equity database till Friday showed.While the number of BSE-listed stocks has risen over the years, even adjusting for that, 2020 -2 1 find the highest percentage of stocks register more than 100 per cent gains.< iframe claim= "The Pandemic Winners" aria-label= "chart" id= "datawrapper-chart-P6 5l"Q src= "https :// datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ P65lQ/ 1/ " scrolling= "no" frameborder= "0" mode= "width: 0; min-width: 100%! important; strip: nothing; " height= "4 00 " >! perform () "use strict"; window.addEventListener( "message" ,( capacity( a ) if( void 0 !== a.data[ "datawrapper-height" ]) for( var e in a.data[ "datawrapper-height" ])))(); Further, the current financial year has so far created the largest number of stocks that originate investor prosperity by more than 1,000 per cent of the children since 2009 -1 0. Eight stocks -- Tanla Platforms, Digispice Engineering, PG Electroplast, Intellect Design, Subex, Venus Redress, CG Power and Jaykay Enterprises -- have risen more than 1,000 per cent of the children since April 1, 2020.81643820 Other major gainers of its first year included Adani Total Gas wih 753 per cent of the children returns, Dixon Engineering 497 per cent of the children, Hindustan Copper 491 per cent, and Tata Elxsi 339 per cent.Among the Nifty5 0 inventories, Tata Motor was the biggest gainer, as it more than quadrupled investors' money during the financial year given the company's focus on shorten pay and reinventing the Indian passenger car business.Liquidity shot in by the Reserve Bank of India and global central banks and influx of a large number of first-time retail investors helped prop up stock tolls during the year even when the real economy registered its first-ever technical receding in several decades.Drawn by cheaper furnishes after the March crash and forearmed with zero-broking cost trading lotions, Indian retail investors shot in billions of dollars into the secondary and primary marketplaces, said market participants. Data from the Defence and Exchange Board of India( Sebi) registered over 10 million brand-new dematerialised chronicles were opened in 2020 -2 1 so far.Dharmesh Kant, an independent busines specialist, said while world-wide liquidity and influx of brand-new investors have played their part, the rise in the stock market has still been driving in fundamentals.“Earnings were robust considers the economic backdrop ... We is very likely to aim the financial year with around 10 per cent earnings growing( for Nifty5 0 companionships ), ” Kant said over telephone.For the next financial year, analysts have projected Nifty5 0 earnings to grow north of 30 per cent, leading Kant to believe that Indian equities will register an even better act going ahead.< iframe entitle= "The Best Performing Stocks of FY21" aria-label= "chart" id= "datawrapper-chart-0m 6pe" src= "https :// datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ 0m6pe/ 1/ " scrolling= "no" frameborder= "0" vogue= "width: 0; min-width: 100%! important; strip: nothing; " height= "9 11 " >! capacity () "use strict"; window.addEventListener( "message" ,( purpose( a ) if( vacant 0 !== a.data[ "datawrapper-height" ]) for( var e in a.data[ "datawrapper-height" ]) document.querySelector( "iframe[ src *= '"+ e+ "'] " ); t &&( t.style.height= a.data[ "datawrapper-height" ][ e ]+ "px" )))(); Not all are in agreement that reaching returns on one’s equity portfolio will be as straightforward as it was in the current financial year amid signalings that investors are already beginning to worry about delivery on the stratospheric expectations.The re-emergence of Covid-1 9 pandemic in countless parts of the country and the possibility of the US Federal Reserve tapering its quantitative easing programme from January of 2022 have already cast doubts over return expectations.A recent inspection of global fund managers by BofA Certificate evidenced inflation and decrease tantrum are now being perceived as bigger gambles to equity portfolios than Covid-1 9. “There is a lot of sud in the market and, therefore, there is a big chance of displeasure for investors next year ... but from a three-to-five years perspective, equities are still preferred over fixed income, ” said the CIO of city-based life insurance company quoted above.Investors hope the new financial year will see a redo of the astounding rendition heard after BSE Sensex’s 89 per cent gain in 2003 -0 4, instead of the underwhelming returns that followed the 2009 -1 0 man feed.

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14Mar/210

Rising bond yields, F&O expiry, GDP data to lend cues to market this week

MUMBAI: After a lacklustre week, market participants are gearing up for another week of likely correction as investors may continue booking profits in the wake of rising concerns over overheating in domestic and global stock markets.In the previous week, Nifty50 and Sensex ended with losses of over 1 per cent with banks leading the weakness in the market. Analysts are concerned that another day of loss on Monday could spark a deeper correction in the market.That said, here are the major factors that can move the market:Keep an eye on government bondsThe multiple auction failure in the domestic bond market amid an ongoing tussle between bond traders and the Reserve Bank of India is making equity investors nervous too. Bond traders believe that 10-year benchmark bond yields should be much higher than where it is, given rising inflation concerns and growth expectations, but the central bank appears adamant to pin yields at 6 per cent. With the RBI set to conduct an operation switch in the coming week, things are only going to get interesting from hereon.Global bond yields surgingRising global bond yields and real interest rates in the US were seen as the reason for the tepid activity in equities in the previous week. Valuations watchers will keep a hawk eye on the US 10-year treasury yield, which is threatening to break higher amid inflation concerns. Rising US bond yields are bad news for emerging markets as it makes them less attractive for foreign investors.Fed Chief Powell’s Congress testimonyUS Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress on Tuesday will be keenly watched by global investors. What Powell says about economic recovery and the Fed’s stance on policy amid surging US Treasury yields will provide cues on how the central bank is likely to behave in the coming months. If Powell does not view the rising bond yields as worrisome, it could ease concerns that the Fed will be forced to normalise easy monetary policy a lot earlier than stated.F&O expiryThe expiry of the February derivatives series on Thursday will be critical in forming traders’ expectations for March as recent addition of short positions in the February contract of Nifty50 have raised concerns of a likely deeper correction. Derivative analysts said that rollovers are likely to be on the long-side suggesting that any weakness could be limited.GDP data for the December quarterWhile the data released by the government for GDP on Friday will be dated given that the advance estimates for 2020-21 were released in the Budget, however, investors will watch out for it to gauge if the economy returned to growth trajectory in the quarter as was widely accepted. Economists expect the year-on-year GDP growth to turn positive after contraction in the previous two quarters.RBI MPC minutesAmid the ongoing debate over bond yields, the minutes of the central bank’s recent Monetary Policy Committee meeting has gained much importance. While the MPC’s statement had said risk on inflation was largely balanced, it will be important to see how individual members view the inflation trajectory. The panel’s views on normalisation of policy stance on both interest rates and liquidity will also pique investors’ interest.Technical set-upAnalysts suggested that the reading on the Nifty50 charts did not make for an optimistic reading for this week. “The index has made a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern which indicates price rejection at higher levels. The bulls are getting tired as the index is trading much higher than its mean levels,” said Nirali Shah of SAMCO Securities.Shah believes that the market could see a brief corrective dip and said that sustained losses below 15,050 on Nifty50 can trigger some more profit booking.

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